Government analysis warned the UK economy would be 9.3 percent smaller after 15 years if Britain falls back on World Trade Organisation rules, compared with staying in the EU. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s worst case scenario predicted a recession worse than that triggered by the 2007 credit crunch if Britain fails to secure an exit deal, with inflation spiking, the pound tanking and house prices slumping by nearly a third. And places such as Stevenage, Watford and Hastings would feel the full force of such a drop, according to a study by British Pearl.
The property investment firm found huge gaps between the price of flats and houses in towns in the capital’s commuter belt – meaning massive depreciation if the Bank of England’s gloomy no-deal Brexit predictions became reality.
Research found the average detached house in Stevenage was 197 percent more than the average flat (£553,697 to £186,422) – and that gap had widened by 68.2 percent in the five years between June 2013 and June 2018.
The price gap between flats and houses in Watford has grown 53.2 percent to 201.4 percent, while in Hastings it has widened by 63 percent to 184.7 percent.
Rugby, Milton Keynes, Luton and Maidstone were also ranked in the top 10 towns and cities with the biggest gap between different steps on the housing ladder.
ut at the other end of the spectrum, house prices in places in the Midlands and north of England would be more shielded from the impact of no-deal Brexit, the study found.
In Doncaster, the average detached house was 140.6 percent more than the average flat, while the gap between prices over the five years increased just 18.4 percent.
In Stoke-on-Trent, the price gap of 131.2 percent had grown just 26.9 percent, while in Blackpool prices were 153.9 percent apart after widening 12.3 percent in five years.
The study comes on the same day as separate assessments from the Government and the Bank of England warned of major harm to the British economy if Theresa May does not secure a Brexit deal.
Mrs May is desperately battling to secure support for her draft withdrawal agreement before MPs vote on the much-maligned deal on December 11.
But the Prime Minister’s contentious plan may have been handed a boost by today’s reports which warned failing to strike a deal would be devastating for jobs, inflation and economic growth.
Brexiteers have dismissed the forecasts as “project fear 2.0” and a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to reverse the result of the 2016 referendum.
MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “Bear in mind the Treasury said we would lose 800,000 jobs, up to, simply by voting to leave the European Union. That was nonsense.
“It said we would have a punishment Brexit. That was nonsense.
“The Treasury’s reputation has been for politicised forecasts which is why George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility to do it independently.”
Meanwhile, former Brexit Secretary David Davis branded the Treasury estimates as part of a “propaganda onslaught”.
He said: “Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.”
Research by the Treasury concluded that Britain will be worse off under any Brexit scenario – including Mrs May’s deal – than if it stayed in the EU.
And the Bank of England warned the economy could shrink by as much as eight percent in as little as a year.
In its worst case forecast for a “disorderly” Brexit, the bank predicted there would be a 25 percent tumble in the value of sterling – taking it close to parity against the dollar – a spike in inflation to 6.5 percent from around 2.4 percent now, and a 30 percent fall in house prices.
Published at Thu, 29 Nov 2018 00:01:00 +0000