Dominic Raab is among the group who are fighting to hold their seats in the December 12 vote, polling information from Datapraxis has revealed. The group’s analysis of 270,000 voter interviews conducted over several weeks has indicated other Brexiteers including Iain Duncan Smith are at risk. Along with Foreign Secretary Raab and former Tory leader Duncan Smith, Steve Baker, Philip Davies, Zac Goldsmith and John Redwood could lose their seats.
The seventh, sensationally, is Boris Johnson himself.
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10:00am – Could Boris lose seat?
Today’s bombshell Datapraxis prediction has also set alarm bells ringing for Boris Johnson himself.
While the Prime Minister has a 16-point lead, the pollsters warned tactical voting could still cause a huge shock.
Their report said: “In the seven ‘big beast’ seats, Goldsmith seems almost certain to lose already and Raab and Duncan Smith look to be in very serious jeopardy.
“Baker, Redwood, Davies and Johnson have somewhat larger leads.
“But even if there is no tightening in the national polls, they could still lose through large-scale tactical campaigning and voting.”
Referencing Michael Portillo’s shock loss in 1992, the report concluded: “If the dynamics analysed in this report play out fully, we could have not one ‘Portillo Moment’ in the early hours of Friday, December 13, but seven.”
9:30am update: Election warning for Dominic Raab
Datapraxis has warned Dominic Raab faces a fight to keep his seat – despite his thumping 23,000 majority.
A simulation of next month’s election indicates his majority could now be cut to just 3,000.
His Esher and Walton constituency voted 57 percent to Remain.
More to follow…
Published at Sun, 24 Nov 2019 09:33:00 +0000