Coronavirus R rate drops below one in England – biggest drops in North West and North East

Coronavirus R rate drops below one in England – biggest drops in North West and North East

The latest R number range is between 0.8 and 1.0, which means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people. While the growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day,is between -3 percent and -1 percent, which means the number of new infections is shrinking by between 1 percent and 3 percent every day.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage.

Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range and the true values are likely to lie within this range, according to the experts.

Sage also said the figures published on Friday more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the present situation.

Last week, the R number was between 0.9 and 1.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.

The news comes after fgures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the number of new COVID-19 infections in England is continuing to fall. 

ONS estimates suggested the incidence rate is now at its lowest since the end of September.

There were an average of 25,700 new cases of COVID-19 per day in private households in England between November 22 and 28, the ONS said – down from an estimated 38,900 new cases per day for the period November 8 to 14.

An estimated 521,300 people in private households in England had COVID-19 between November 22 and 28, the equivalent of around 0.96 percent of the population.

The figures represent a drop from 633,000 people, or 1.16 percent of the population, who were estimated to have COVID-19 in the period November 15 to 21.

The ONS figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

Data shows the proportion of people testing positive for the virus is estimated to have decreased in all regions of England except the north-east, where rates appear to have levelled off.

But in Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 is no longer falling, the ONS said.

An estimated 18,100 people in private households in Wales had COVID-19 between November 22 and 28, up slightly from an estimated 16,400 people for the period November 15 to 21.

The ONS pointed out that the results should be interpreted with caution because of the relatively small number of tests and low number of positives in its Wales sample.

In Northern Ireland, an estimated 9,500 people in private households had COVID-19 between November 22 and 28, down from an estimated 12,700 people for the period November 15 to 21.

In Scotland, an estimated 40,900 people had COVID-19 between November 22 and 28, down from 45,700 people for November 15 to 21.

Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2020 13:47:00 +0000