Ireland’s 2.3-million-strong workforce would create 80,000 fewer jobs over the next 10 years through a combination of job cuts and roles that would otherwise have been created if Britain leaves without any orderly transition for trade, a government-commissioned report has found. Ireland’s Finance Ministry had forecast 50,000 fewer jobs in a similar scenario.
Due to the two country’s close trading links, the Economic and Social Research Institute’s (ESRI) study estimated that even if Britain makes an orderly agreed exit from the EU, employment would still be 1.8 percent lower than if trade remained as it is now, the equivalent of 45,000 jobs.
All forecasts published to date suggest that Ireland’s fast growing economy – which has outstripped every other EU country for each of the past five years – will still grow if Britain leaves with or without a deal, but at a slower pace.
The ESRI, which is an independent think-tank partly funded by the finance department, said gross domestic product would be 2.6 percentage point lower than it otherwise would have been in 10 years time with a deal and 5 percent in a chaotic no deal.
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The initial Finance Ministry research from January suggested that GDP would be 4.25 percentage points less than forecast by 2023 under a disorderly Brexit, while the Irish central bank put the hit at 6 percentage points over a decade.
MPs have called on Prime Minister Theresa May to heed whatever alternative Brexit strategy they can settle on after they attempted to break the impasse by grabbing control of the process in parliament.
The government insisted the deal Mrs May agreed with the EU in November after more than two years of negotiation remained the only way forward for taking Britain out of the bloc.
Mrs May hopes MPs who want an abrupt no-deal Brexit will now fall in behind her or risk seeing a long delay which could end up with Britain remaining closer to the EU or not leaving at all.
In the latest twist in Britain’s Brexit drama, MPs on Monday night wrestled control of parliamentary time in order to vote on a range of Brexit options on Wednesday. Three junior ministers resigned in order to defy the government line.
Mrs May responded by saying her government would not be bound by the results of the so-called indicative votes.
But MPs said the government should listen.
Labour’s Hilary Benn said: “If parliament is able to come up with a way forward, the question is whether the government is prepared to compromise.”
Published at Tue, 26 Mar 2019 09:54:00 +0000