However, pollsters ComRes have also said no party has ever won a general election was leader ratings as low as those of Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. The analysis, penned by ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins points to the latest poll average suggesting the Tories currently have a ten-point lead, which would probably translate into a Tory majority of about 30.
However, he added: “While the financial markets appear to have decided that the outcome of next week’s election will be a Tory majority, the outlook for the next eight days, in reality, is far from certain.” He pointed out Labour had out-performed the average of all final published polls by five points, a trend which if repeated would mean another hung Parliament.
Mr Hawkins added: “To be confident of achieving a majority the Tories need to squeeze more votes out of somewhere, but the obvious reservoir (Brexit Party) is largely depleted.
“They could target Remain-voting Tories who have defected to the Liberal Democrats, but that will be difficult to achieve without alienating Leave-voting Tories.”
Additionally, the 2019 election had seen more effort than ever before to encourage tactical voting via sites such as Remain United.
Historically, tactical voting is generally reckoned to account for about 10 percent of votes cast, but some polling suggests it could be twice as prevalent this time.
In addition, Lord Ashcroft polling indicated the Lib Dem vote to be softer, and more Labour-inclined, than the Labour vote is towards the Lib Dems.
Also, two-thirds of Lib Dem voters would rather see a Labour Government with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister than see a Tory one led by Boris Johnson.
A similar proportion of Lib Dems would also prefer Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister than Britain leaving the EU.
Mr Hawkins said: “In a similar vein, the Conservative Party, 17 years after Theresa May first used the term, is still more likely than Labour to be seen as ‘the nasty party’ (by 34 percent to 31 percent).
“Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are no better than Theresa May’s were before the 2017 General Election, and his net ratings (positive minus negative) rarely venture above zero.
“What is certainly different, however, is that Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings have moved from around net +30 to -30 over the same period.
“Around one in eight of those who intend to vote have yet to make up their mind.
“This rises to one in five women. In the most recent Savanta ComRes poll published on 1st December, the Tories were 14 points ahead among men but only six points ahead among women.
“The most likely outcome at this stage remains a modest Tory majority and that is where the numbers currently sit. But there are too many unsettled variables to be confident of that result.”
Published at Wed, 04 Dec 2019 21:34:00 +0000